Tesla in 10 years??

If I told You Tesla will no longer be selling cars 10 years from now, will you agree or disagree? First and foremost, Tesla is a technology company not a car manufacturing company. So, what do technological companies do? They solve certain problems or fill a gap. In essence, selling electric cars in the first place was not the end goal. As a tech firm, they have to look to new ways to evolve and to stay ahead of the curve they have to plan years ahead. 

To understand this, for the last couple of years, Tesla has been slowly driving down the price of their vehicles as their manufacturing and battery efficiency improves. Recently they even unveiled their plans to have a 25000 EV rolling out in a few years.

Despite this Tesla only plans on selling consumer cars for another 5 to 10 years before stepping out and here's why? 

There is a strong belief within the company and Elon Musk about the value of their full self-driving. They even value it much more than what they are currently charging the development @ 10000 dollars. They believe that with all regulatory approvals the full autonomy software will be worth ten times what it is today. So why the high increase in value, and will the common person even afford it. 

With that in mind, Tesla is willing to let go of their retail business of selling cars and work on a self-driving business, and the sale of the software to similar businesses in the transport industry.

They have rough estimates of how much money they will earn a year and that is roughly 30,000 dollars while covering about 90,000kms in the same year. This is achievable by not only the fuel cost removed but by the low maintenance of EVs and no salaries directed towards drivers as the vehicles are autonomous.

With the vehicles estimated to last over 1 million kilometers, this means the vehicle will work about ten years, and with the company also bringing down the cost of vehicle production drastically, this will mean a return on investment compared to their current business model.

The self-driving software also will be a steal for large businesses in logistics such as amazon, FedEx, Walmart, and so on. 

My thoughts on why the self-driving software is currently available to consumers on the specific fees are a way of tesla to collect and accumulate as much data on, as Artificial intelligence that the self-driving is based on improves and depends on as data fed to it. Currently, Tesla has collected over 3 billion miles on self-driving and the miles continue increasing.

This aside, Tesla’s main mission is to speed up the world's transition to clean energy and also to prove and showcase how to produce a cheap EV.  With these, they aim to prove the market for such cars is huge and readily available to all their competitors.

The transition to Robo taxi company is quite a far fetch but achievable. All it requires is time and patience and lots of investments towards that goal.

Do you think this is achievable?

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